SpaceX and Blue Origin will have more developed technology and far greater capital to risk.
Nevertheless, all of these problems can be surmounted – although as with all emerging industries how it will unfold is impossible to predict. But given the terrestrial challenges asteroid mining could address, primarily resource scarcity, as well as the new horizons it will undoubtedly open up, its rise over the coming century appears inevitable.
Abundance beyond Value
There is one final issue, however, that many in the industry appear unwilling to face. It is a problem born of success, much as the Horse Manure Crisis of 1894 placed the limits of the First Disruption against the abundance of the Second. It is also a problem born of extreme supply, which, as we ’ve already seen, is dificult to reconcile with the price mechanism.
You see, there is so much mineral wealth beyond our planet, on other planets, moons and asteroids, that the moment ofworld mining becomes a viable industry, the price of the very commodities investors had previously found so precious will collapse.
The most instructive example here is the asteroid 16 Psyche, located in the belt between Mars and Jupiter. Measuring over 200 kilometres in diameter, it is one of the largest asteroids in our solar system, composed of iron, nickel and rarer elements such as copper, gold and platinum. The ‘value ’ of this giant floating mine? Around \$10,000 quadrillion – and that’s just the iron. To be clear, Psyche is a rarity. But it demonstrates a crucial point: mining space would create such outlandish supply as to collapse prices on Earth.
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