Third Disruption began, the possibility of a machine with even the balance and coordination of a small child seemed remote.
But then the impossible suddenly became inevitable. Enter Atlas, the robot who learned to somersault.
Atlas Somersaults
If you go to YouTube and type ‘PETMAN prototype ’ into the search bar, the first video that appears, posted in October 2009, is a demonstration of a biped robot developed by Massachusetts-based company Boston Dynamics. Awkward and attached to several cables, PETMAN looks like the lovechild of a subwoofer and Bambi on ice.
Now type in ‘What’s new, Atlas?’ On your screen will appear a video of another robot manufactured by the same company. Only this video was published in late 2017 and the robot isn’t just walking without cables, it’s doing box jumps and backflips. It doesn’t end there; elsewhere on the company’s YouTube channel you can see videos of Atlas jogging outside or doing ‘parkour’ as it jumps three successive steps of forty centimetres each without breaking stride. This would appear to indicate that Moravec’s paradox is close to being overcome, with machines able to match humans in fine dexterity and spatial awareness sooner than we think. The descendants of Atlas another nine years from now may plausibly have the kind of coordination typically associated with an ice skater, gymnast or sculptor.
The reason why is simple: the progress from PETMAN to Atlas is underpinned by the improvements outlined in the second chapter, as we see exponential gains in the price– performance ratio of digital technologies, from cameras and sensors to chips, and the experience curve in areas such as energy storage. A case in point: until 2015 Atlas had to be permanently plugged into a wall socket. Now, with its 3.7-kilowatt-hour lithium-ion battery pack, it can walk around for about an hour. These trends are only set to continue.
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