Modelling of processes by means of statistical methods, heuristics and simulation increasingly deals with the phenomenon of the unexpected, of discontinuous processes and of surprises. Linear extrapolations of trends, derived with the aid of parameters from a combination of temporal series and comparable sectoral analyses of the existing system, are regarded as inadequate for the portrayal of changes at the level of the world system – climatic and ecological, demographic or economic ones. Instead of prediction which can be derived in linear terms, the focus of interest is possible deviation and the regularity which might perhaps be found in it. Surprises can happen to individuals, institutions or whole societies. To be able to incorporate them in predictions increases the range of possible measures in order to be prepared for them. The cycle between prediction, even of the unexpected, and possible control begins to come full circle: it is the question of the extended present.
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From the Future to the Extended Present