{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","uuid":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","normalized_title":"被算法操控的生活重新定义精准广告大数据和ai","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","isbns":["9787571003012"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":257,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A2%AB%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%EF%BC%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E7%B2%BE%E5%87%86%E5%B9%BF%E5%91%8A%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%92%8CAI","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/search"},"page":{"printed_page":82,"pdf_page":102,"physical_index":102,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"a58957f07a4ee2e7c6f129abfe920d486474b27486a0ba4a6b5ce15a8aa1bd60"},"chapter":"第8章|预测竞选结果的模型是怎么“炼” 成的?","content":"2016 年 9 月 26 日—项 A+ 级民意调查 Selzer & Company 显示特朗普拥有微弱的领先优势，FiveThirtyEight随即对自己的模型做了类似的调整。在此之前，FiveThirtyEight预测希拉里的获胜概率为 58%。而当它根据最近民意调查结果更新了模型后，FiveThirtyEight 预测希拉里有 52%的概率获胜。\n\n在2016年大选接下来的几周中，大多数民意调查显示，希拉里以微弱优势领先，于是钟形曲线逐渐往左移动并变得窄长。随着时间的推移，民意调查慢慢地将预测她获胜的概率扩大至70%多。到了这个时候，钟形曲线看起就像图8.2（c）所示那样。\n\n概率分布法要求对预测的所有不确定性进行详细的记录。因此，希尔弗和他的团队创建了一个完整的政治民意调查专家名单，并根据他们的水平从“A+”到“C-”对他们进行降序排名。另外还有一个F组，列入的是那些被认为是伪造调查数据或调查手法不道德的民调结果。希尔弗和他的团队根据这一排名和调查的新旧程度来给予不同的民意调查结果不同的权重。\n\nFiveThirtyEight研究了民意调查的有效性能够持续多长时间，并使用回归模型预测了全国调查如何反映不同州的民意。一旦完成这些全部数据的收集和整合工作，FiveThirtyEight团队就会模拟选举，将各种各样可能的偏差考虑在内，并更新其钟形曲线。\n\n被算法操控的生活OUTNUMBERED\n\n82","previous_page":81,"next_page":83}