{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","uuid":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","normalized_title":"被算法操控的生活重新定义精准广告大数据和ai","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","isbns":["9787571003012"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":257,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A2%AB%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%EF%BC%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E7%B2%BE%E5%87%86%E5%B9%BF%E5%91%8A%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%92%8CAI","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/search"},"page":{"printed_page":84,"pdf_page":104,"physical_index":104,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"c2321686b30f438180e41e9c96d0f4b729a08df950d3159b44c5bbc0c1a6dc39"},"chapter":"第8章|预测竞选结果的模型是怎么“炼” 成的?","content":"群众的智慧=超级预言家\n\n至于人类行为分析方面，迄今为止我们所看到的算法和人类相比，准确度最多只是平分秋色。预测再犯罪的概率时，朱莉娅·德雷斯尔的“机械土耳其人”与最先进算法的水平不相上下，但他们所用到的数据少得多；基于点“赞”做成的人格模型距离“了解我们”还很遥远，而声田也在致力给出和朋友一样准确的音乐推荐。\n\n我想知道同样的限制是否存在于FiveThirtyEight 模型中。考虑到内特·希尔弗占据的资源，FiveThirtyEight是算法预测中无可争议的王者。我想知道人类是否有实力与它一决高下，他们能匹敌内特的模型甚至打败它吗？\n\n在总统初选期间，美国的《咖啡馆》(CAFE）杂志聘请了一位名叫卡尔·迪格勒（CarlDiggler）的专家，他拥有“30年的政治新闻从业经验”，只凭自己的“直觉和经验”为美国各州的每一场初选做出预测。毫无疑问他对自己的工作很在行。在超级星期二①的22场初选中，他猜对了20场竞选结果。当他的预测能力在一场又一场的选举中得到验证的时候，他向希尔弗发起了挑战，要来一场短兵相接的预测竞赛。希尔弗没有回应，但迪格勒还是坚持与之较量。在初选结束时，迪格勒的准确率为89%，达到了和FiveThirtyEight同样的水平。不仅如此，他预测的场数是希尔弗网站预测的2倍之多。可以说卡尔·迪格勒是美国总统初选的预测冠军。\n\n被算法操控的生活UTNUMBERED\n\n①“超级星期二”这一名词首次诞生于一九八四年美国总统大选。美国总统选举可分为预选和大选两个阶段，年初预选时会有多个州集中在星期二进行选举，其结果会对党内最终提名产生重要影响，因此这一天被称为“超级星期二”。\n\n84","previous_page":83,"next_page":85}