{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","uuid":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","normalized_title":"被算法操控的生活重新定义精准广告大数据和ai","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","isbns":["9787571003012"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":257,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A2%AB%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%EF%BC%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E7%B2%BE%E5%87%86%E5%B9%BF%E5%91%8A%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%92%8CAI","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/search"},"page":{"printed_page":88,"pdf_page":108,"physical_index":108,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"7ebcb3ff8cc63e366629e027697f7feaf8d124322d1ada8906dc5bfa9de4c550"},"chapter":"第8章|预测竞选结果的模型是怎么“炼” 成的?","content":"确定性在 5%到95%之间的是“胆小”的预测，如图8.3(a)和8.3(b)的中部所示。这些预测的质量可以通过它们与虚线的距离来衡量。在这条线上方的圆圈表示这种预测明显低估了民主党的获胜机会，而位于这条线下方的圆圈则表示这种预测高估了民主党的获胜机会。在2016年，预测市场和FiveThirtyEight都有一种非常轻微的倾向，在共和党占优势的州中他们会高估民主党获胜的机会。这种趋势在统计学上并不显著，并且可以合理地归因于偶然性。\n\n被算法操控的生活OUTNUMBERED\n\n88","previous_page":87,"next_page":89}