{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","uuid":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","normalized_title":"被算法操控的生活重新定义精准广告大数据和ai","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","isbns":["9787571003012"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":257,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A2%AB%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%EF%BC%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E7%B2%BE%E5%87%86%E5%B9%BF%E5%91%8A%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%92%8CAI","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/search"},"page":{"printed_page":90,"pdf_page":110,"physical_index":110,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"013b29fd9345c7bbe0e0be7f1b4c25efd82470f066779850c341ba66906ca412"},"chapter":"第8章|预测竞选结果的模型是怎么“炼” 成的?","content":"如果我们仔细看这两家的预测随时间如何变化，就能够发现它们非常接近彼此（如图 8.4 所示)。部分原因是 PredictIt 在盗用 FiveThirtyEight的成果。事实上，在“超级预言家”论坛的讨论中，最常见的信息来源正是内特·希尔弗的网站。然而，预测市场的关键就在于它把不同的信息整合在一起，并根据其质量进行权衡取舍。因此，尽管我们可以说 FiveThirtyEight 的信息是高质量的，但FiveThirtyEight 不太可能是PredictIt唯一的信息来源。当然，我们也没有证据表明，PredictIt的预测是跟在 FiveThirtyEight 后面变化的。\n\n不考虑市场的模型不是好算法\n\nFiveThirtyEight在其模型中没有堂而皇之地使用博彩市场数据，然而作为曾经的职业赌徒，希尔弗对预测市场和博彩公司了如指掌：它们给出的赔率往往比民意调查本身更能反映事件发生的概率。他可以看到，市场并不十分确定希拉里会获胜。《纽约时报》和《赫芬顿邮报》的其他一些模型则完全依赖于民意调香数据，它们预测民主党候选人的胜算分别为91%和 99%，但 FiveThirtyEight 团队对民意调查数据进行了调整以反映结果的不确定性，使其更接近市场赔率。\n\n被算法操控的生活UUTNUMBERED\n\n90","previous_page":89,"next_page":91}