{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","id":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","uuid":"094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title":"被算法操控的生活：重新定义精准广告、大数据和AI","normalized_title":"被算法操控的生活重新定义精准广告大数据和ai","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787571003012","isbns":["9787571003012"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":257,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A2%AB%E7%AE%97%E6%B3%95%E6%93%8D%E6%8E%A7%E7%9A%84%E7%94%9F%E6%B4%BB%EF%BC%9A%E9%87%8D%E6%96%B0%E5%AE%9A%E4%B9%89%E7%B2%BE%E5%87%86%E5%B9%BF%E5%91%8A%E3%80%81%E5%A4%A7%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E5%92%8CAI","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/094ce2a7-d7e6-4de6-a84c-9994a96a3c4a/search"},"page":{"printed_page":94,"pdf_page":114,"physical_index":114,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"4f91c2591181ce641af3400a71d751477f72dd7f3b2357f54b9194e96edd4a3a"},"chapter":"第8章|预测竞选结果的模型是怎么“炼” 成的?","content":"莫娜强调给不同的结果进行大致分类，这一点启发了我。在此，我有义务用一种简单易懂的方式给所有的模型预测提个醒，模型预测再怎么高深莫测，大抵也不过出现三种表现结果：\n\n1. 胡猜：这些预测不比扔飞镖的黑猩猩强；\n\n2. 差强人意：这些预测不比收入极低的“机械土耳其人”强；\n\n3. 中间水平：这些预测不比庄家的赔率强。\n\n这三种结果覆盖了大多数数学模型的表现，我们用它们来预测各种时间尺度下与人相关的一切事件，从一天、一个星期到一个月，从体育、政治到明星八卦和金融。如果你知道有以上三条规则没有涵盖的例外情况，请告诉我，我肯定把我的赌注都压在你的模型上。\n\n被算法操控的生活OUTNUMBERED\n\n94","previous_page":93,"next_page":95}