{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","title":"人工智能的进化 计算机思维离人类心智还有多远","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508685670","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","id":"72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","uuid":"72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","title":"人工智能的进化 计算机思维离人类心智还有多远","normalized_title":"人工智能的进化计算机思维离人类心智还有多远","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508685670","isbns":["9787508685670"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":216,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E7%9A%84%E8%BF%9B%E5%8C%96%20%E8%AE%A1%E7%AE%97%E6%9C%BA%E6%80%9D%E7%BB%B4%E7%A6%BB%E4%BA%BA%E7%B1%BB%E5%BF%83%E6%99%BA%E8%BF%98%E6%9C%89%E5%A4%9A%E8%BF%9C","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/72c4da97-7cf2-441a-a985-c1252297d6a3/search"},"page":{"printed_page":106,"pdf_page":117,"physical_index":117,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"58166ef3b1a6015fd5200620933ef1fa51838bfe68f7240ec34ba586cec73b90"},"chapter":"第五章","content":"但是，这种工程战略也有完全不起作用的时候。如果某些个体事件虽然极为罕见，但对于整体却意义非凡，我们就将这种事件的分布称为长尾分布，而这些罕见的个体事件就是纳西姆·塔勒布（NassimTaleb）所说的“黑天鹅”。（欧洲人曾一度认为所有的天鹅都是白色的。）虽然黑天鹅的作用可能非常重要，但如果我们先着眼于常见的现象，再将注意力转到稍微不太常见的现象，然后以此类推，我们就可能永远也见不到黑天鹅了。单从统计学的角度来看，我们似乎做得很好。但是事实上，我们可能做得非常糟糕。\n\n长尾现象带来的难题\n\n为了更好地理解该如何应对长尾现象，我们不妨假想一个极端的数字示例来帮助思考。\n\n假设我们正在尝试估算一个巨大数字集合的平均值。为了便于思考，我先透露点儿小秘密：这个数字集合中包含1万亿个数字，它们的平均数是100000。但是集合中大部分数字都非常小。该集合数字的平均数如此之大的原因是，其中有1000个超级大的数字。当然，这些大数字都控制在100万亿之内。\n\n人工智能的进化\n\n106","previous_page":null,"next_page":107}