{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","title":"规则的悖论 想象背后的技术、愚笨与权力诱惑 = The Utopia of Rules On Technology, Stupidity, and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":null,"requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","id":"7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","uuid":"7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","title":"规则的悖论 想象背后的技术、愚笨与权力诱惑 = The Utopia of Rules On Technology, Stupidity, and the Secret Joys of Bureaucracy","normalized_title":"规则的悖论想象背后的技术愚笨与权力诱惑theutopiaofrulesontechnologystupidityandthesecretjoysofbureaucracy","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":null,"isbns":[],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":236,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E8%A7%84%E5%88%99%E7%9A%84%E6%82%96%E8%AE%BA%20%E6%83%B3%E8%B1%A1%E8%83%8C%E5%90%8E%E7%9A%84%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%E3%80%81%E6%84%9A%E7%AC%A8%E4%B8%8E%E6%9D%83%E5%8A%9B%E8%AF%B1%E6%83%91%20%3D%20The%20Utopia%20of%20Rules%20On%20Technology%2C%20Stupidity%2C%20and%20the%20Secret%20Joys%20of%20Bureaucracy","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/7849bdaa-511d-4943-bbd6-e5f93c32627e/search"},"page":{"printed_page":104,"pdf_page":103,"physical_index":103,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"6526f4a52e53c5c94d2f876ce99737e93edfae85ece25ddd8e90b1233271c51f"},"chapter":"第二章 论飞行汽车与下降的利润率","content":"托夫勒几乎在所有事情上都弄错了，这般事实并未损害他的职业生涯。当预言落空时，个人魅力型先知本人很少会受连累。托夫勒只是不断调整自己的分析，每隔10年左右提出引人瞩目的新主张，便总能博得公众的高度认同和赞誉。1980年，他出版了一本名为《第三次浪潮》（TheThirdWave）的书，<sup>9</sup>论点直接基于埃内斯特·曼德尔的“第三次技术革命”，不同的是曼德尔认为这些变化终将导致资本主义的终结，托夫勒则简单假定资本主义将永远存续。到了1990年，托夫勒已成为共和党议员纽特·金里奇（NewtGingrich）的个人知识导师，后者声称自己1994年的政治宣言“与美国有约”（Contract with America）的灵感部分源于这样的见解：美国需要摆脱一套陈腐的、物质主义的、工业化的思维定式，转而迎接一个崭新的、自由市场的、信息时代的“第三次浪潮文明”。\n\n这里处处都是讽刺。《未来的冲击》最伟大的现世成就之一可能就是启发美国在1972年成立了国会技术评估办公室（Office of TechnologyAssessment，OTA），这多少符合托夫勒对具有破坏性潜质的技术进行某种民主监督的呼吁。金里奇在1995年赢得国会控制权后，率先采取的行动之一就是取消对技术评估办公室的资助，斥之为无谓的政府浪费。同先前一样，整件事似乎完全没有困扰到托夫勒。彼时的他早就不再试图通过唤起大众来影响政策了，甚至不再试图影响政治辩论；相反，他的谋生之道主要是为企业总裁和智囊团成员开办研讨会。他的见解实际上已经私有化了。\n\n104","previous_page":103,"next_page":105}