{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","id":"9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","uuid":"9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","normalized_title":"黑箱社会控制金钱和信息的数据法则theblackboxsociety","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","isbns":["9787508655208"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":318,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E9%BB%91%E7%AE%B1%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%20%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99%EF%BC%9DTHE%20BLACK%20BOX%20SOCIETY","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/9c884da5-4c5c-4613-91be-2dad1863fbfa/search"},"page":{"printed_page":161,"pdf_page":180,"physical_index":180,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"433426cb8934c75e16e3ff5da5aae9e24dd584d18b8e5c5cb941943fbc4af89c"},"chapter":"第三章","content":"风险与监管\n\n我已经描画了金融界的漆黑景象：听命于首席执行官的投机交易者们将似是而非的数据输入模型中进行操控。你可能认为在危机屡屡发生之后(从20世纪80年代后期的信用储蓄社倒闭危机到21世纪初的财务丑闻)，金融部门应当将在2008年时清理门户，但它非但没有对令人费解的内部机制进行改善（更不用说控制)，反而开始对不良后果进行投保。“金融工程师”策划了风险“互换”方案，该方案鼓励数量分析专家(和监管者）以尽量精准的方式进行估算。例如，信用违约掉期(Credit default SwapCDS)可以将拖欠风险转移给第三方，该第三方承诺在债务人（乙方）无法支付的情况下代其向债权人（甲方）付款。这项创新被称为是具有里程碑意义的“价格发现”，即每天(甚至每秒）实时追踪某一企业的违约可能性。\n\n风险建模和信用评分一样极不可靠，它是自然科学法在社会金融科学中的一种误用。据称，“风险价值”模型在预测公司因市场价格变动而产生的损失时，至少能够达到95%的准确率。但这些模型基于人类行为的稳定性，而人类行为又会在模型应用的过程中发生变化。此外，很多模型对于全国性房价下降的可能性都给予了极小的权重。正如过高的信用评分可以让一个没有偿还能力的人获得贷款一样，过度慷慨的模型可以帮助银行获得资本，从而为不可靠的项目提供资金。作为一种给人假象的保险，信用违约掉期让投资者越发有了安全的错觉。\n\n第四章\n\n金融算法:皇帝的新代码\n\n161","previous_page":160,"next_page":162}