{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","title":"时间、现代与后现代经验","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787303133659","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","id":"dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","uuid":"dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","title":"时间、现代与后现代经验","normalized_title":"时间现代与后现代经验","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787303133659","isbns":["9787303133659","9192631770"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":137,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E6%97%B6%E9%97%B4%E3%80%81%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E4%B8%8E%E5%90%8E%E7%8E%B0%E4%BB%A3%E7%BB%8F%E9%AA%8C","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/dcc9103d-93ff-4da5-89f2-d15668886c27/search"},"page":{"printed_page":45,"pdf_page":53,"physical_index":53,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"b276b128ae1598dbaf8a909950706b92a86a5b9d0159f6f9af807b3745290d44"},"chapter":"第二章 从未来到扩展了的现在","content":"无疑，上述研究以及其他类似的（可预言的）循环现象的研究（无论如何，我们可以判断这些研究的结论或者获得这些结论所使用的方法)，都拥有智慧和知识上的强大魅力，甚至早期的统计学家们也深受震撼，那时还完全以“因为上帝之美”这样的辞令来解释看似可认识的出生率和死亡率。①然而，如果一个人想要在如此难以捉摸的社会生活中，成功地采取行动或者要成功揭示不依赖于我们人类的意志或目的而存在的规律性之美，那么，其中存在的风险总会多于科学预测的魅力。\n\n第二章 从末来到扩展了的现在\n\n① Cesare Marchetti, “Society as a Learning System: Discovery, Invention and Innovation Cycles Revisited\", Technological Forecasting and Social Change, vol. 18 (1980), pp. 267-282; “The Future\", Laxenburg: IIASA June 1986, mimeo.\n\n45","previous_page":44,"next_page":46}