{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","uuid":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","normalized_title":"黑箱社会控制金钱和信息的数据法则theblackboxsociety","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","isbns":["9787508655208"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":318,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E9%BB%91%E7%AE%B1%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%20%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99%EF%BC%9DTHE%20BLACK%20BOX%20SOCIETY","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/search"},"page":{"printed_page":151,"pdf_page":170,"physical_index":170,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"4ebda8bfc64389cede9a7d9aab75d80cccfbdfcf7189f519b29f85ef7436775d"},"chapter":"第三章","content":"许多因素促成了政府对金融业放松管制。权力和意识形态起了作用：银行大力投资进行游说，而里根时代的政治家们并不认为政府是市场的保护人，而是将其视为冗余。业内人士在华盛顿和华尔街之间穿梭。随着信息技术的提高，说客们会讲述这样一个动听的故事：监管者已经可有可无；有经验的投资者可以自行核查交易；计算机模型可以识别并降低风险。然而，用自动化操作来代替监管的想法无异于飞行汽车或太空殖民那样天马行空。\n\n机器梦\n\n让我们看一看计算机模型在房地产危机的关键环节（抵押担保证券）中所起的作用。虽然投资者可能对某一个抵押者的支付流并不感兴趣，但这些支付流汇总起来就可以成为入息来源（或证券）进入到市场交易当中，而且比贷款更加稳定。假设支付流源自一个很小的城市，那么贷款给这个城市的某家某户就具有一定的风险，因为养家糊口的人有可能病倒，他们可能会破产，也可能第二天就中了彩票还清了贷款（投资者无法源源不断地获得利息)。某一个家庭的具体情况很难预测，但统计模型可以更好地预测出包含1000个家庭的群体发生违约的可能性。它们根据所用数据“知道”每1000个借款人中的违约者几乎不会超过30个。这项统计分析被编程到专属软件当中，为抵押贷款市场中的\n\n第四章\n\n金融算法:皇帝的新代码\n\n151","previous_page":150,"next_page":152}