{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","uuid":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","normalized_title":"黑箱社会控制金钱和信息的数据法则theblackboxsociety","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","isbns":["9787508655208"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":318,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E9%BB%91%E7%AE%B1%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%20%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99%EF%BC%9DTHE%20BLACK%20BOX%20SOCIETY","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/search"},"page":{"printed_page":156,"pdf_page":175,"physical_index":175,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"4721b09a75dfeb4b9ba6a7816269500cd2ccec565e5ebb02f3e58da6aae64a6f"},"chapter":"第三章","content":"在房地产泡沫期间，评级机构争先恐后地对产生于这一时期的海量证券进行评级。就像泛滥的“成绩通胀”使得全A成绩贬值一样，评级通胀也让AAA等级失去了原本的意义(或价值)。这里有很多现成的理由：美国经济非常强劲，人口增长意味着房产价格只能上涨，计算机驱动的超高效率将会提升所有人的收入水平。信用评级机构很快就将评判标准相继宽松到了最低限度。正如社会学家威尔·戴维斯(WillDavies)所言，那些“负责说明、衡量和判断资本活动者也在从中获利”，在这种情况下，廉洁便无从谈起。\n\n最终，媒体注意到了这种评级的粗糙性，并给出了各种“一针见血”的评论。“但愿纸牌屋快要倾塌的时候我们都已经退休，并且十分富有。”一封内部邮件中这样写道。“这可能是蠢驴设计的，而我们还要对它进行评级。”有人在即时信息中打趣道。这些语句略带调侃，我们可以看到评级机构的工作并不光鲜。然而，我们不能将所有问题都推给无良的“害群之马”和屡教不改的骗子。金融界中存在的问题要比个人疏忽问题严重得多，比如统计有效性和数学建模问题，而这也正是黑箱的栖息地。\n\n例如，标准普尔公司使用贷款评估和损失估值系统(LEVELS)模型来对抵押担保证券进行评估。该模型的基本原理十分简单：1999年，它利用包含约166000个固定利率优级房贷的数据库来对某些类型的贷款违约率进行评估。就像Google利用过去的点击数据来预测广告效果一样，标准普尔可以将待估证券与数据库进行匹配，然后得出贷款违约率的可能性。\n\n黑箱社会The Black BoxSociety\n\n156","previous_page":155,"next_page":157}