{"resolved":true,"match_type":"uuid","source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","requested_by":"printed_page","book":{"source_type":"original_book","book_id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","id":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","uuid":"e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title":"黑箱社会 控制金钱和信息的数据法则＝THE BLACK BOX SOCIETY","normalized_title":"黑箱社会控制金钱和信息的数据法则theblackboxsociety","author":null,"edition":null,"publisher":null,"year":null,"isbn":"9787508655208","isbns":["9787508655208"],"parsed":true,"ai_readable":true,"document_type":"book","page_count":318,"navigation_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","title_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/title/%E9%BB%91%E7%AE%B1%E7%A4%BE%E4%BC%9A%20%E6%8E%A7%E5%88%B6%E9%87%91%E9%92%B1%E5%92%8C%E4%BF%A1%E6%81%AF%E7%9A%84%E6%95%B0%E6%8D%AE%E6%B3%95%E5%88%99%EF%BC%9DTHE%20BLACK%20BOX%20SOCIETY","fixed_page_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","path_api_url_template":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/book/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page/{printed_page}","read_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253","page_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/page","search_url":"https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/books/e613fff5-9eda-4e8d-b348-903e6d630253/search"},"page":{"printed_page":188,"pdf_page":207,"physical_index":207,"physical_index_base":0,"printed_page_status":"recognized","page_sha256":"65333b720fb90c41c676940619f05db6457cec388ab6609dec79902d2dad419d"},"chapter":"第三章","content":"黑天鹅还是黑箱?\n\n虽然一些专家公开宣称说，“没有人能够预见到”金融危机的爆发，但有很多人早就呼吁政府加强合理监管，以此避免危机。2003年时，联邦调查局已经发现抵押贷款的骗行开始泛滥并警告了这一趋势可能带来的可怕后果。法学教授林恩·斯托特(Lynn Stout)曾经预言会发生重大的损失，因为“赌徒和衍生品交易商都在试图通过操纵他们的赌注对象来控制期货”。她预见到，彻底取消管制的做法必定会引发一系列的问题。华盛顿官方将林恩·斯托特的研究结论移交给金融“专家”及其所支持的智库进行讨论，但最终未予采纳，于是斯托特和被“十三位银行家”封口的美国商品期货交易委员会主席布鲁克斯利·伯恩一样，她的凶事预言最终成为现实。\n\n然而，如果只是把危机原因归咎于监管不力，那未免太过简化了。银行家们构建了复杂的金融结构来隐藏风险，该风险来自最终极的约束因素：市场。资产负债表上会因某些目的而体现或规避一些责任。协议常常过于复杂，一旦发生“信用事件”并引发大量损失，就会造成权责不清的局面。\n\n特立独行的投资者纳西姆·塔勒布(NassimTaleb)曾经引发众议，因为他将金融危机称为“黑天鹅”，即不可预知的异常事件。但随着更多的细节浮出水面，我们可以明显地看出金融危机并非不可测事件的汇总与无端爆发，而是黑箱金融系统的必然演变结果。即使是“不良资产”的买家也无法理解黑箱的本质。某种程度上讲，这是一种赤裸裸的掩盖行为：直接对其所作所为进行隐藏。\n\n黑箱社会The Black BoxSociety\n\n188","previous_page":187,"next_page":189}