AI经济：机器人时代的工作、财富和社会福利（被科技洪流裹挟的每个人，都需要在AI时代做出自己的选择）

结 论

[1] This remark is widely credited to the American baseball coach and philosopher Yogi Berra, but it or something like it is also attributed to a wide range of other people.

[2] Sagan, C. (1980) Cosmos, New York: Random House.

后 记

[1] See Darrach, B., Meet Shaky, the First Electronic Person, Life, November 20, 1970, p. 68.

[2] Quoted by Brockman (2015), p. 166.

[3] Ford (2015), pp. 229–30.

[4] Leonhard (2016), p. 9.

[5] This would have a consequence of key interest not so much to economists as to our cousins, the accountants. (Distant cousins, several times removed, I must stress.) If AI develops to the point where machines can continually improve themselves, this will reduce, or perhaps even reverse, the process of deterioration that affects all physical assets, which gives rise to the accounting concept of "depreciation," which plays such a large part in many companies’ accounts. At least in some cases, could "depreciation" turn into "appreciation"?

[6] Kelly (2016), p. 49.

[7] Tegmark (2017), p. 314.

[8] Brockman (2015), pp. 29–30.

[9] Take this, for example, from Shanahan, M.: "Foremost among these limitations is mortality. An animal's body is a fragile thing, vulnerable to disease, damage, and decay, and the biological brain, on which human consciousness (today) depends, is merely one of its parts. But if we acquire the means to repair any level of damage to it, and ultimately to rebuild it from scratch, possibly in a non-biological substrate, then there is nothing to preclude the unlimited extension of consciousness" (2015, p. xxi).

[10] Ford (2015), pp. 230–2.

[11] Quoted in Shanahan (2015), p. 157. Shanahan expands on this vision. He has written:"Unhampered by earthly biological needs, capable of with-standing extremes of temperature and doses of radiation that would be fatal to humans, and psychologically untroubled by the prospect of thousands of years traveling through interstellar space, self-reproducing super intelligent machines would be in a good position to colonize the galaxy. From a large enough perspective, it might be seen as human destiny to facilitate this future, even though (unenhanced) humans themselves are physically and intellectually too feeble to participate in it."

[12] As Nick Bostrum puts it: "The existence of birds demonstrated that heavier- than-air flight was physically possible and prompted efforts to build flying machines. Yet the first functioning airplanes did not flap their wings. The jury is out on whether machine intelligence will be like flight, which humans achieved through an artificial mechanism, or like combustion, which we initially mastered by copying naturally occurring fires" (2014, p. 34).

[13] Harari (2016), pp. 140–1.

[15] Dawkins, R. (2006) The God Delusion, London: Penguin.

[16] Shanahan, M. (2015) The Technological Singularity, Cambridge: The MIT Press, p. 98.

[17] Brockman (2015), p. 255.

[18] Quoted in The Daily Telegraph, March 14, 2017. For a detailed exposition of Penrose's views on these issues, see Penrose 1989 and 1994.

[19] Quoted in The Daily Telegraph, March 14, 2017.

[20] Quoted in Leonhard (2016), p. 9.