人工智能时代：破解人机共存密码（套装共10册）

第5章 原子与比特的进化路线图

The roadmap presented in this chapter grew out of an event that CBA and the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy cohosted on the science of digital fabrication on March 7, 2013 (http://cba.mit.edu/events/13.03.scifab).

The fab lab inventory (for the community fabrication stage) is available at http://fab.cba.mit.edu/about/fab/inv.html.

William Gibson made his statement on the future being here now in a radio interview in “The Science in Science Fiction,” Talk of the Nation,NPR, November 30, 1999.

The transition from rapid prototyping to the rapid prototyping of rapid prototyping (for the personal fabrication stage) is presented in Nadya Peek’s “Making Machines That Make: Object-Oriented Hardware Meets Object-Oriented Software, ” PhD dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2016.

The source for the robotic builder is Benjamin Jenett and Kenneth Cheung, “BILL-E: Robotic Platform for Locomotion and Manipulation of Lightweight Space Structures,” 25th AIAA/AHS Adaptive Structures Conference, AIAA SciTech Forum, Grapevine, Texas, January 13, 2017(AIAA 2017–1876).

The transition from analog to digital materials (for the universal fabrication stage) is presented in Kenneth Cheung’s “Digital Cellular Solids:Reconfigurable Composite Materials,” PhD dissertation, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2012, and William Langford’s“Electronic Digital Materials,” master’s thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2014.

The transition from assembly to self-assembly (for the ubiquitous fabrication stage) was introduced by John von Neumann and A. Burks, Theor_y of Se lf-Re_p l icatin_g Automata (University of Illinois Press, 1966), and the design tools are discussed in Amanda Ghassaei’s “Rapid Design and Simulation of Functional Digital Materials,” master’s thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, 2016.

第6章 未来的现实

Alvin Toffler’sFuture Shock (Random House, 1970), which we have noted in various places, is prescient in its appreciation for exponential rates of change.

Carl Sagan’s quote is from his “Why We Need to Understand Science,” Ske_ptica l In_qu i rer 14 (spring 1990): page 3.

More information on Alex McDowell’s World Building Institute at the University of Southern California is at http://worldbuilding.institute.

McDowell’s quote is in Evan Atherton and Maurice Conti, eds., Four :A Co l lection of Short Stor ies Ex_p lor in_g the Future Des i_gn Techno lo_gy and Us (Autodesk Applied Research Lab, 2016).

The source for the bridge image is Benjamin Jenett, Daniel Cellucci,Christine Gregg, Kenneth Cheung, “Meso-Scale Digital Materials: Modular, Reconfigurable, Lattice-Based Structures,” ASME International Maufacturing Science and Engineering Conference, 2016; and the source for the wing image is Benjamin Jenett, Sam Calisch, Daniel Cellucci, Nick Cramer, Neil Gershenfeld, Sean Swei, and Kenneth Cheung, “Digital Morphing Wing: Active Wing Shaping Concept Using Composite Lattice Based Cellular Structures,” Soft Robotics March 2017, 4 (1).

Kurt Lewin’s change model is in his Fie ld Theor_y in Sc ience: Se lected Theoretica l Pa_pers (Harper and Brothers, 1951).

John Paul Kotter’s model for leading change was first published in his“Leading Change: Why Transformation Efforts Fail,” Harvard Bus inessRev iew, March–April 1995, 59–67.

William Bridges’s model for managing transitions is in his Mana_gin_g Trans itions: Makin_g the Most of Chan_ge (Da Capo Press and Perseus Books, 1991), as noted earlier.

W. Edwards Deming’s plan, do, check, and adjust model for continuous change was first published in hisOut of the (MIT Press, 1986),page 88, as plan, do, study, act.

Everett Rogers’s The Diffus ion of Innovation (Free Press, 1962) located technology in the context of communication systems.

Geoffrey Moore’s Cross in_g the Chasm: Marketin_g and Selling High Tech Goods to Mainstream Customers (Harper Collins, 1991) is a touchstone for technology entrepreneurs making the transition from start-up to established enterprise.

Clayton Christensen’s The Innovator ^’ s Di lemma (Harvard Business School, 1997) has spawned a small army of scholars challenging his initial estimates on disruption in various industries while celebrating his core insights.

NASA’s “technology readiness levels” are summarized at Thuy Mai,ed., “Technology Readiness Level,” NASA, last updated July 31, 2015, www.nasa.gov/directorates/heo/scan/engineering/technology/txt \_accordion 1.html.

US Department of Defense’s “technology readiness assessment”is summarized at Assistant Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering, “Technology Readiness Assessment (TRA) Guidance,” US Department of Defense, April 2011,

www.acq.osd.mil/chieftechnologist/publications/docs/TRA2011.p df.

Stewart Brand’s “Self-Driving Genes Are Coming,” his answer to a survey asking, “2016: What Do You Consider the Most Interesting Recent[Scientific] News? What Makes It Important?,” appears inEd_ge (blog), edited by John Brockman (www.edge.org/contributors/what-do-you-consider-the-mostinteresting-recent-scientific-news-what-makes-it)

Joi Ito and Jeff Howe’s Whi_p lash: How to Surv ive Our Future(Grand Central Publishing, 2016) offers nine principles for navigating a world of accelerating change.

The visualization of the four stages was constructed by beginning with the current rate of change with new fab labs, using Neil’s data from Chapter 2. For the curve with the rate of change for community fabrication, an annual rate of change of 1.5 was used (doubling every year and a half),which was decelerated to 1.4 in 2020 and then progressively slower to level out around 2030. The same curve was then duplicated, beginning with a five-year lag for personal fabrication and a leveling off that begins around 2035. For the final two curves, lags of an additional five years wer used for each, and the leveling off was projected much further out — at 2045 for digital materials and off the chart for programmable materials.Because this is an illustration rather than a charting of actual data, the format is different from the data charts used in earlier chapters. The full set of data is available on request from the authors.

Alvin Toffler’sFuture Shock (Random House, 1970) is also cited earlier.

Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi’s Good Bus iness: Leadershi_p (Penguin Books, 2003) explores how the concept of flow applies to business and society

Alone (Kis ima Inn itchuna) is a commercial video game developed through an inclusive development process by E-Line Media and pioneering Alaska Native elders, writers, and storytellers. Released in November 2014, it has been selected for over seventy-five best-games lists in 2014 and has won multiple awards, including a BAFTA (British Academy of Film and Television Arts) award and Game of the Year at Games for Change. Learn more at http://neveralonegame.com.

Coverage of the Ford Foundation’s commitment of a billion dollars from endowment to mission-related investments is at Ford Foundation,“Ford Foundation Commits \$1 Billion from Endowment to Mission- Related Investments,” April 5, 2017, www.fordfoundation.org/the-latest/news/ford-foundationcommits-1-billion-from-endowment-to-mission-relatedinvestments.

The Heron Foundation’s announcement that all \$273 million of its endowment was going to mission-related investing is Heron, “Heron’s Journey,” no date, at www.heron.org/enterprise#2011.

More information on the Investors’ Circle social impact investing network is at www.investorscircle.net.

Andrew Carnegie’s Autobio_gra_ph_y of Andrew Carne_gie (Houghton Mifflin, 1920), was published one year after his death

The Gates-Buffet Giving Pledge is summarized at https://giving pledge.org.

See the World Bank, “Global Connect Initiative, https://share.america.gov/globalconnect, for a summary.

The Connect ED, FCC E-Rate Program is summarized in Federal Communications Commission, “E-Rate: Schools & Libraries USF Program,”last updated April 28, 2017, www.fcc.gov/general/e-rate-schools-libraries-usf-program.

The concept of a layered system can be further understood with an example from the doctoral seminar in engineering systems that Joel cofounded at MIT in 2002. In comparing the U.S. and British health care systems, the U.S. system has been described as a two-layered system of doctor’s offices and hospitals. By contrast, the British system has been dscribed as a three-layered system of nurse-led clinics, doctor’s offices, and hospitals. The U.S. system does have some nurse-led clinics, but they are not integral to the design. Layers are interconnected, but they also function independently, which adds robustness (and complexity) to the system.

The American Library Association defines digital literacy in Marijke Visser, “Digital Literacy Definition,”ALA Connect, September 14, 2012,http://connect.ala.org/node/181197.

Martin Ford’s Rise of the Robots: Techno lo_gy and the of a Jobless Future (Basic Books, 2015) explores the implications of accelerating technologies such as AI and robotics on the future of work and society.

Michael Piore and Charles Sabel’s The Second Industr ia l Poss ibi l ities for Pros_per it_y (Basic Books, 1984) was

also cited earlier.

The UN High Commissioner for Refugees estimates that there are sixty- fve million refugees at Adrian Edwards, “Global Forced Displacement Hits Record High,” UNHCR, June 20, 2016, www.unhcr.org/enus/news/latest/2016/6/5763b65a4/global-forced-displacementhits-record-high.html.

Retirees projections are in Current Po_pu lation Re_ports by Jennifer M.Ortman, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Howard Hogan, May 2014), P25-1140.

For background on the displacement of auto workers, see Joel Cutcher Gershenfeld, Dan Brooks, and Martin Mulloy, Inside the Ford-UAW Transformation: Pivotal Events in Valuing and De l iver in_g Resu lts (MITPress, 2015).

The Oxfam report on income and wealth inequality, “An Economy for the 99 Percent,” January 2017, www.oxfam.org/en/research/economy-99,is one of a growing number of studies connecting technology, economics,and inequality.

The Max Weber quote is from 1909 and is cited by Reinhard Bendix, Max Weber : An Inte l lectua l Portra it (Doubleday and Company, 1960),page 464. It reflects the visceral quality underlying his observations on bureaucracy.

David Weil’s Fissur ization: Wh_y Work Became So Bad for Man_y and What Can Be Done to Im_prove It (Harvard University Press, 2014)is at the center of current policy debates and is based on his leadership at the US Department of Labor around overtime rules and other policies focused on fair pay.

In Alone To_gether : Wh_y We Ex_pect More from Techno lo_gy and from Each Other (Basic Books, 2011), Sherry Turkle explores the deep human connections and disconnects associated with digital technology.

The quote in the text is from Tom Friedman’s Thank You for BeingLate: An Optimist’s Guide to Thriving in the Age of (Farrar,Straus and Giroux, 2016).

The concluding quotes are from our survey of fab leaders who were responding to our request for “a phrase or metaphor to summarize your current view of fab labs and other aspects of digital fabrication.” We selected what we thought were the most evocative quotes and only then discovered that they were from a wonderfully diverse mix of countries.

（参考文献由尼尔、艾伦和乔尔撰写）

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设计现实/（美）尼尔·格申斐尔德，（美）艾伦·格申斐尔德，（美）乔尔·卡
彻- 格申斐尔德著；丁峻峰，武川，蓝河译. -- 北京：中信出版社，2019. 6
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Designing Reality
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设计现实

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