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# 资本之后的世界
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从更宏观的角度来看，宇宙中的资源数量远超人类的需求。在可预见的未来，我们有望捕获富含金属的陨石。目前已有几家受风险投资支持的初创公司正在探索这一领域，同时像SpaceX这样的公司正在努力降低完成相关太空任务的发射成本。从长远来看，我们可能还能实现物质的转化。虽然我们现有的转化技术处在相对初级的阶段，但早在1981年，格伦·西博格（Gleen Seaborg）和他的同事就成功地将铋转化为了黄金（Aleklett et al., 1981）。
・转化：能源和资源本身是不够的。要实现大多数解决方案，我们需要理解并掌握如何利用能源来转化资源。这个过程涉及化学和物理转变。机器等形式的物理资本一直是推动许多新型的满足人类需求的解决方案的关键因素。例如，一台编织机可以迅速将纱线编成衣物，而衣物是维持人类生存的重要解决方案之一。
人类最早采取的转化方案是制造狩猎武器，如通过磨尖木头或石头来制作箭和刀。随着时间的推移，我们掌握了金属制造技术，并开发了大量将资源组合和转化为日常使用材料的化学工艺。这些工艺中有许多都需要大量资本投入（资本密集型）。然而，在世界许多地区，人们在资本方面并未面临实质性的限制。一个典型的例子是近年来发达经济体中汽车尺寸的增大。这一趋势主要由运动型多用途SUV和所谓的跨界车（结合了轿车和SUV特点的车型）推动，自2015年以来，这些车型的销量已大大超过传统轿车（Motorlease，未注明日期）。由于体积更大，这些车辆需要使用更多的材料。类似的例子在其他领域也很常见，比如房屋面积的增大趋势。到2014年，美国新建房屋的平均面积已从20世纪50年代的约90平方米增加到约250平方米（与此同时，家庭平均规模却显著减小了）。换言之，这其中可能存在分配问题，但在材料制造方面并不存在整体性的资本限制。
值得注意的是，我们的许多制造工艺和流程仍然存在高度浪费的现象，即从一大块材料开始，然后通过切割或铣削去除多余部分。与此相反，我们现在开始看到增材制造（Additive Manufacturing，也称3D打印）技术的不断提升。这种方法的制造原理是，材料通过逐层沉积的方式形成所需的形状。
・运输：最后一个关键的基础推动力是运输物资和转移人员的能力。这是人类取得巨大进步的另一个领域，相关技术从人力交通发展到
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畜力交通，再到机械动力交通。
长期以来，人类的交通运输能力受到资金和技术的限制，在世界某些地方至今仍是如此。没有外力帮助，我们的移动速度相当缓慢（与许多其他动物相比更是如此），也无法跨越面积较大的水域。因此，不出所料，早期人类的许多技术创新都致力于改善交通，包括驯化马匹等动物，以及发明船只和马车。
人类长久以来一直梦想像鸟儿一样飞翔，关于人类飞行的神话（如古希腊神话中代达罗斯和伊卡洛斯的故事）可以追溯到数千年前。然而，直到20世纪初我们才真正实现这个梦想。此后，航空技术发展迅速，到1969年，人类已经成功登陆月球。然而，在新冠疫情之后，我们却面临设备过剩的局面，大量飞机被闲置在沙漠中，数量超过以往任何时候，其中一些可能再也不会重新启用。
如今，我们面临两个相互关联的挑战。一方面，世界上某些地区在交通方面仍需赶上发达国家的水平，特别是拥有数十亿人口的印度和中国，这些国家的人民渴望拥有更便捷的出行方式。另一方面，为了应对气候危机，我们需要在全球范围内迅速推动低碳化的交通工具。要实现这两个目标，就需要在电动交通工具方面进行大规模投资。理想情况下，印度和中国的新增车辆应该以电动车为主，包括电动摩托车和电动三轮车。实现这一目标并非受限于资金，关键在于我们是否愿意重新分配大量的生产性资源。
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