--- schema_version: "library-reader-v1" source_type: "original_book" title: "未来简史：从智人到智神" author: null edition: null publisher: null year: null isbn: null library_document_id: "b628401b-c3e7-48d0-8f65-889ab5a28bc6" source_sha256: "1a8b042ea43ab257ba620a9d47fd24ec8e0e323f12f7abe6dccf804dfef8c476" pdf_physical_page_count: 486 pdf_physical_page_index_base: 0 range_start: 470 range_count: 10 html_url: "https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/b628401b-c3e7-48d0-8f65-889ab5a28bc6?start=470&limit=10" markdown_url: "https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/b628401b-c3e7-48d0-8f65-889ab5a28bc6.md?start=470&limit=10" previous_url: "https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/b628401b-c3e7-48d0-8f65-889ab5a28bc6.md?start=460&limit=10" next_url: "https://workshop.closeclaw.top/api/ai/read/b628401b-c3e7-48d0-8f65-889ab5a28bc6.md?start=480&limit=10" --- # 未来简史：从智人到智神 > 页码规则：PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX 是从 0 开始的权威文件物理页索引；PRINTED_PAGE 是页面中识别出的印刷页码，可能为空，二者不得混用。 ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=470 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED [29] Tzezana,The Guide to the Future , 62–4. [30] Steiner,Automate This , 155. [31] http://www.mattersight.com. [33] Rebecca Morelle, ‘Google Machine Learns to Master Video Games’, BBC, 25 February 2015, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-31623427; Elizabeth Lopatto, ‘Google’s AI Can Learn to Play Video Games’,The Verge , 25 February 2015, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.theverge.com/2015/2/25/8108399/google-ai-deepmind-video-games; Volodymyr Mnih et al., ‘Human-Level Control through Deep Reinforcement Learning’,Nature , 26 February 2015, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v518/n7540/full/nature14236.html [34] Michael Lewis,Moneyball:The Art of Winning An Unfair Game (NewYork:W. W. Norton, 2003).同时参见2011年的电影《点球成金》（Moneyball），由贝尼特 ·米勒（Bennett Miller）执导，布拉德 ·皮特饰演比恩。 ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=471 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED [36] Tom Simonite, ‘When Your Boss is an Uber Algoritm’,MIT Technology Review , 1 December 2015, retrieved 4 February 2016, https://www.technologyreview.com/s/543946/when-your-boss-is-an-uberalgorithm/. [38] Steiner,Automate This , 89–101; D. H. Cope,Comes the Fiery Night:2,000 Haiku by Man and Machine (Santa Cruz:Create Space, 2011).同时 参见： Dormehl,The Formula , 174–80, 195–8, 200–2, 216–20; Steiner,Automate This , 75–89. [39] Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael A. Osborne, ‘The Future of Employment:How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerisation?’, 17 September 2013, accessed 12 August 2015, http://www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/downloads/academic/The\_Future\_of\_Employme ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=472 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=473 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED 2013, accessed 22 December 2014, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/14/opinion/mymedical-choice.html. [49] ‘Google Flu Trends’, http://www.google.org/flutrends/about/how.html; Jeremy Ginsberg et al., ‘Detecting Influenza Epidemics Using Search Engine Query Data’,Nature , 457:7232 (2008), 1012–14; Declan Butler, ‘When Google Got Flu Wrong’,Nature , 13 February 2013, accessed 22 December 2014, http://www.nature.com/news/when-google-got-flu-wrong-1.12413; Miguel Helft, ‘Google Uses Searches to Track Flu’s Spread’, New York Times, 11 November 2008, accessed 22 December 2014, 11\_nytimes\_google\_influenza.pdf; Samanth Cook et al., ‘Assessing Google Flu Trends Performance in the United States during the 2009 Influenza Virus A (H1N1) Pandemic’,PLOS One , 19 August 2011, accessed 22 December 2014, http://www.plosone.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.002361 Jeffrey Shaman et al., ‘RealTime Inluenza Forecasts during the 2012– 2013 Season’,Nature , 23 April 2013, accessed 24 December 2014, http://www.nature.com/ncomms/2013/131203/ncomms3837/full/ncomms3837.html. [51] Dormehl,The Formula , 72–80. [52] Wu Youyou, Michal Kosinski and David Stillwell, ‘Computer-Based Personality Judgements Are More Accurate Than Those Made by Humans’,PNAS 112:4 (2015), 1036–40. [53] 关于先知、代理人和君主的概念，参见： Bostrom,Superintelligence . ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=474 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED [54] https://www.waze.com/. [56] World Bank,World Development Indicators 2012 (Washington DC:World Bank, 2012), 72, http://data.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/wdi-2012–ebook.pdf. [58] ‘EM spectrum’.Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Commons, https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:EM\_spectrum.svg#/media/File:EM\_spe [59] Joseph Henrich, Steven J. Heine and Ara Norenzayan, ‘The Weirdest People in the World’,Behavioral and Brain Sciences 33 (2010), 61–135. [60] Benny Shanon,Antipodes of the Mind:Charting the Phenome- nology of the Ayahuasca Experience (Oxford:Oxford University Press, 2002). [61] Thomas Nagel, ‘What Is It Like to Be a Bat?’,Philosophical Review 83:4 (1974), 435–50. [62] Michael J. Noad et al., ‘Cultural Revolution in Whale Songs’,Nature 408:6812 (2000), 537; Nina Eriksen et al., ‘Cultural Change in the Songs of Humpback Whales (Megaptera novaeangliae ) from Tonga’,Behavior 142:3 (2005), 305–28; E. C. M. Parsons, A. J. Wright and M. A. Gore, ‘The Nature of Humpback Whale (Megaptera novaeangliae ) Song’,Journal of Marine Animals and Their Ecology 1:1 (2008), 22–31. ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=475 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED Olfactory Stimuli’,Science 343:6177 (2014),1370–2; Peter A. Brennan and Frank Zufall, ‘Pheromonal Communication in Vertebrates’,Nature 444:7117 (2006), 308–15; Jianzhi Zhang and David M. Webb, ‘Evolutionary Deterioration of the Vomeronasal Pheromone Transduction Pathway in Catarrhine Primates’,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100:14 (2003), 8337–41; Bettina Beer, ‘Smell, Person, Space and Memory’,Experiencing New Worlds, ed. Jurg Wassmann and Kathrina Stockhaus (New York:Berghahn Books, 2007), 187–200; Niclas Burenhult and Majid Asifa, ‘Olfaction in Aslian Ideology and Language’,Sense and Society 6:1 (2011), 19–29; Constance Classen, David Howes and Anthony Synnott,Aroma:The Cultural History of Smell (London:Routledge, 1994); Amy Pei-jung Lee, ‘Reduplication and Odor in Four Formosan Languages’,Language and Linguistics 11:1 (2010):99–126;Walter E. A. van Beek, ‘The Dirty Smith:Smell as a Social Frontier among the Kapsiki/Higi of North Cameroon and North-Eastern Nigeria’,Africa 62:1 (1992), 38–58; Ewelina Wnuk and Asifa Majid, ‘Revisiting the Limits of Language:The Odor Lexicon of Maniq’,Cognition 131 (2014), 125–38.然而，有些学者认为 人类之所以失去强大的嗅觉能力，是因为某些更古老的进化过程。参见： Yoav Gilad et al., ‘Human Specific Loss of Olfactory Receptor Genes’,Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100:6 (2003), 3324–7; Atushi Matsui, Yasuhiro Go and Yoshihito Niimura, ‘Degeneration of Olfactory Receptor Gene Repertories in Primates:No Direct Link to Full Trichromatic Vision’,Molecular Biology and Evolution 27:5 (2010), 1192– 200; Graham M. Hughes, Emma C. Teeling and Desmond G. Higgins, “Loss of Olfactory Receptor Function in Hominin Evolution”,PLOS One 9:1 (2014), e84714. [64] Matthew Crawford,The World Beyond Your Head:How to Flourish in an Age of Distraction (London:Viking, 2015). [65] Turnbull and Solms,TheBrain and the Inner World , 136–59; Kelly Bulkeley,Visions of the Night:Dreams, Religion and Psychology (New York:State University of New York Press, 1999); Andreas Mavrematis,Hypnogogia:The Unique State of Consciousness Between Wakefulness and Sleep (London:Routledge, 1987); Brigitte Holzinger, ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=476 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED Stephen LaBerge and Lynn Levitan, ‘Psychophysiological Correlates of Lucid Dreaming’,American Psychological Association 16:2 (2006):88–95; Watanabe Tsuneo, ‘Lucid Dreaming:Its Experimental Proof and Psychological Conditions’,Journal of International Society of Life Information Science 21:1 (2003):159–62; Victor I. Spoormaker and Jan van den Bout, ‘Lucid Dreaming Treatment for Nightmares:A Pilot Study’,Psychotherapy and Psychosomatics 75:6 (2006):389–94. [66] 例如参见： Kevin Kelly,What Technology Wants (New York: Viking Press, 2010); César Hidalgo,Why Information Grows:The Evolution of Order, From Atoms to Economies (New York:Basic Books, 2015); Howard Bloom,Global Brain:The Evolution of Mass Mind from the Big Bang to the 21st Century (Hoboken:Wiley, 2001); DuBravac,Digital Destiny . [67] Friedrich Hayek, ‘The Use of Knowledge in Society,’American Economic Review 35:4 (1945):519–30. [68] Kiyohiko G. Nishimura,Imperfect Competition Differential Information and the Macro-foundations of Macro-economy (Oxford:Oxford University Press, 1992); Frank M. Machovec,Perfect Competition and the Transformation of Economics (London:Routledge, 2002); Frank V. Mastrianna,Basic Economics , 16th edn (Mason:South-Western, 2010), 78– 89; Zhiwu Chen, ‘Freedom of Information and the Economic Future of Hong Kong’,Hong Kong Centre for Economic Research 74 (2003); Randall Morck, Bernard Yeung and Wayne Yu, ‘The Information Content of Stock Markets:Why Do Emerging Markets Have Synchronous Stock Price Movements?’,Journal of Financial Economics 58:1 (2000), 215–60; Louis H. Ederington and Jae Ha Lee, ‘How Markets Process Information:News Releases and Volatility’,Journal of Finance 48:4 (1993), 1161–91; Mark L. Mitchell and J. Harold Mulherin, ‘The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market’,Journal of Finance 49:3 (1994):923–50; JeanJacques Laffont and Eric S. Maskin, ‘The Efficient Market Hypothesis and Insider Trading on the Stock Market’,Journal of Political Economy 98:1 (1990), 70–93; Steven R. Salbu, ‘Differentiated Perspectives on Insider Trading:The Effect of Paradigm Selection on Policy’,St John ’s Law ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=477 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED 1. Computer artwork © KTSDESIGN/Science Photo Library. ## PDF_PHYSICAL_PAGE_INDEX=478 | PRINTED_PAGE=NOT_DETECTED 2.The Triumph of Death, c.1562, Bruegel, Pieter the Elder © The Art Archive/Alamy Stock Photo. 3. © NIAID/CDC/Science Photo Library. 4. Moscow, 1968 © Sovfoto/UIG via Getty Images. 5. 14世纪法国手稿中的“死亡与死去”：Pilgrimage of theHuman Life, Bodleian Library, Oxford © Art Media/Print Collector/Getty Images. 6. © CHICUREL Arnaud/Getty Images. 7. © American Spirit/Shutterstock.com. 8. © Imagebank/Chris Brunskill/Getty Images/Bridgeman Images. 9. © H. Armstrong Roberts/ClassicStock/Getty Images. 10. © De Agostini Picture Library/G.Nimatallah/Bridgeman Images. 11.图示：全球大型动物数量饼图。 12. 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