数据资本时代

响你申请车贷或者房贷，也可能让你在婚介所的系统中无法与心仪的女孩儿进行匹配，还可能让你的创业融资遭遇挫折。在这种被无限记录和分析的情况下，最佳的选择就是按照政府和大型数据企业设定的主流价值观前进，把那些特立独行的念头从根子上删除。

实际上，维克托在展望大数据美好未来的同时，一直没有忘记和这些可能给人类发展带来冲击的危险做斗争。在这本书中，他提出了累进数据共享授权一要求达到一定市场份额的企业必须向社会开放它的数据。在维克托名为《删除》的著作中，他认为个人有权删除他/她在其他系统中存储的自己的数据，并且个人数据必须要有一个有限的期限，超过这个期限的历史数据不能被用来分析和判断当前的人。遗憾的是，我不得不说，维克托的这些抗争手段，其操作执行的难度巨大，它们和企业追求利润的原始冲动相悖。最终，它们也只会像向想象中的巨人和城堡挥剑的唐·吉诃德一样，有一颗骑士的心，却没有骑士的舞台。

我从不认为数据和算法所追求的高效和准确与人类发展的目标一致。至少，在很多已经充分现代化的地区，我不觉得高效和准确能够给人们带来更多的幸福和快乐。我在瑞士留学的时候，欧洲的朋友讲到中国，总有些敌意。这个敌意不是他们看不上我们，而是他们觉得中国人太努力，工作时间太长，工作效率又很高，这样久而久之，欧洲如果想要立足，就必须加倍努力，这样他们从容淡泊的慢生活自然难以幸存。至于那些能够让人更快找到喜欢听的歌、喜欢看的书、喜欢吃的零食、喜欢的女人的算法，我觉得并不会给我们带来真正的幸福。因为寻觅和尝试的过程，甚至随之而来的痛苦和挫败，都是一个自足灵魂和完整人格所必需的。

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数据科学家如同英国著名作家史蒂文森笔下的“化身博士”，他既有善的一面，又有恶的一面；既能为人类带来福祉，也能给人类带来伤害。我不相信人类最美好最柔软的部分能够为数据所描述，也不希望某天我们成为自己创造物的奴隶，为了某种被设定的目标沿着被优化的道路前进。遗憾的是，我还给不出任何避免危险的可行方案或许，我们只能期望那些化身博士的皮肤下，都有一颗扁鹊般的善心。

周涛

2018年8月19日

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第1章 重塑未来市场

1. the online marketplace's twentieth-anniversary event: Marco della Cava, “eBay Turns Twenty with Sales Plan Aimed at Rivals Like Amazon," USA Today, September 16, 2015, http:// www.usatoday.com/story/techi2015/09/16/eBay-turns-20-sales-plan-aimed-rivals-likeamazon/72317234.

1. traded on eBay's platform: “eBay: Twenty Years of Trading," Economist, September 3, 2015,http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/09/daily-chart-1.

1. active eBay users: Leena Ro, “For eBay, a New Chapter Begins," Fortune, July 19, 2015, http://fortune.com/2015/07/19/eBay-independence.

1. “a general rallying the troops” : Della Cava, “eBay Turns Twenty."

1. "due for a reset": Ibid.

1. eBay s recent troubles: Nicole Perlroth, “eBay Urges New Passwords After Breach," New York Times, May21,2014, https://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/22/technology/eBay-reportsattack-on-its-computer-network.html?\_r=0.

1. sellers of Yahoo's shares: Matt Levine, “How Can Yahoo Be Worth Less Than Zero?" Bloomberg, April 17,2014, http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2014-04-17/how-canyahoo-be-worth-less-than-zero; seegenerally, Richard H. Thaler, Misbehav-ing:The Making of Behavioural Economics (London: Allen Lane, 2015), 244 - 253.

1. "electronic markets” : Thomas W. Malone, Joanne Yates, and Robert I. Benjamin, “Electronic Markets and Electronic Hierarchies,"Communications of the ACM, June 1987, https://www. researchgate.net/publication/220425850.

1. a staggering 9,300 percent upturn: “The Zettabyte Era: Trends and Analysis," Cisco White

参考文献

数据资本时代

Paper No.1465272001812119,June7,2017, http://www.cisco.com/c/en/us/solutions/ collateral/service-provider/visual-networking-index-vni/vni-hyperconnectivity-wp.html.

第2章 人类交流与合作

1. each new foursome got into place: Efren Garcia, “Historic Record in Catalonia's Human Tower Building,”Ara: Explaining Catalonia, November23,2015, http://www.ara.cat/en/Historicrecord-Catalonias-tower-building\_0\_1473452720.html; see also the video of the tower being built on YouTube, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTP-Xp7v6m0.

1. a girl had fallen to her death: “Una niña doce años muere al caerse de un castell’ de nueve pisos en Mataró," Libertad Digital,August 4, 2006, http://www.libertaddigital.com/ sociedad/una-nina-de-12-anos-muere-al-caerse-de-un-castell-de-nueve-pisos-enmataro-1276285054. set a new world record: Stefania Rousselle, “Building Human Pyramids for Catalonia” (video “Climbingfor Catalonian Pride” ), New York Times, November 7, 2014, https://www.nytimes. com/video/world/europe/100000003222118/catalonians-climb-high-to-exhibit-pride.html.

1. “no limits but thesky” : Hereit seems exactly right—but also some- what wrong—to quote Castilian Miguel de Cervantes's Don Quixote, pt. 3, chap. 3.

1. complexity of the structure is the principal concern: A castell with an aguila, or needle—a tower of single individuals standing one atop the other that is revealed as the main castle is deconstructed—is the most complex and coveted form.

1. has come to mean “workingtogether”: UNESCO, “Human Tow- ers," YouTube video, November5,2010, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-iSHfrmGdyo.

1. became possible to protect a dependent child: Sarah Blaffer Hrdy, Mothers and Others: The Evolutionary Origins of Mutual Understanding (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 2009).

1. opened the floodgates to globalization: LloydG. Reynolds, "Inter-Country Diffusion of EconomicGrowth, 1870–1914," in Mark Gersovitz, Carlos F. Diaz--Alejandro, Gustav Ranis, and Mark R. Rosenzweig, eds., The Theory and Experience of Economic Devel- opment: Essays in Honor of Sir W. Arthur Lewis (New York: Rout– ledge, 2012), 319.

1. in exchange for a freshly transcribed copy: Mark Kurlansky, Paper: Paging Through History (New York: W. W. Norton, 2016), 13.

1. revolutionary eighteenth century Encyclop édie: Ibid., 231.See also: Frank A. Kafker and Serena Kafker, The Encyclopedists as Individuals: A Biographical Dictionary of the Authors of the Encyclop é die (Oxford: Voltaire Foundation, 1988), http://encyclopedie.uchicago.edu.

19.40 million articles in nearly three hundred languages: These numbers are from Wikipedia's home page as of December 2016.

1. system to classify the planet's life forms: Wilfrid Blunt, Linnaeus: The Compleat Naturalist (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2002), 185– 193.

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1. Honda's sales fell from 90 percent: Hagel and Brown, The Only Sustainable Edge, 108 - 109.

第3章 市场与货币

1. market volatility plummeted: Robert Jensen, “The Digital Provide: Information (Technology), Market Performance, and Welfare in the South Indian Fisheries Sector," Quarterly Journal of Economics 122, no. 3 (August 2007), 879-924, https://academic.oup.com/qje/articleabstract/122/3/879/1879540/The-Digital-Provide-Information-Technology-Market.

1. “The market is essentially an ordering mechanism” : Friedrich August von Hayek, “Coping with Ignorance," Ludwig von Mises Memorial Lecture, Hillsdale College, Hillsdale, Ml, July 1978.

1. the market for used cars: George A. Akerlof, “The Market for Lemons': Quality Uncertainty and the Market Mechanism," Quarterly Journal of Economics 84, no. 3 (August 1970), 488- 500, http:// qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/84/3/488.short.

1. fewer peaches are offered for sale: Information asymmetries can also cause sellers to lose out when they undervalue their goods and services and a more informed buyer takes advantage of it. For example, a seller may offer an initial service at a loss to a buyer, imagining that the transaction will lead to repeat sales, not knowing that

1. the buyer never intends to come back—or would only do so for the same low price. The seller's "loss leader" leads to nothing but a loss.

1. before copycats appear and free ride: In his famous book The Theory of Economic Development, Joseph Schumpeter argued that entrepreneurs, by definition, have discovered a category of exclusive information. They're the first people to identify a new market, patent an invention, launch an efficient means of production, or introduce some other "new combination" —a wayto coordinate human activity—before anyone else is aware of it. For Schumpeter and his acolytes, the resulting information asymmetry creates an economic incentive. Even though the market becomes less efficient, that is the price we pay for innovation, Hence, information imbalances aren't necessarily bad—up to a point. The incentives created by information asymmetries are essential to innovation, but the reward for innovation cannot be permanent without harming the market. Asymmetries must be fleeting and temporal lest market predators exploit their information monopoly forever, creating a vacuum, a black hole in which information is trapped. Information vacuums force buyers to make suboptimal decisions. Thankfully, most information asymmetries are temporary. Competitors copy or emulate innovations and catch up, erasing the innovator' s information advantage.

1. a transactiontakes placethat shouldn't: There are numerous such cases; see, e.g., the discovery of an original Declaration of Independence hidden in a picture bought at a flea market (Eleanor Blau, “Declaration of Independence Sells for \$2.4 Million,"New York Times

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参考文献

Szymanski, eds., Auctions, Market Mech- anisms and Their Applications (Berlin: Springer, 2009),3, http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-03821-1\_2.

1. first issue of the product-comparison magazine: “Consumer Group Formed: New Organization Plans to Give Data on Goods and Services," New York Times, February 6, 1936, http://query. nytimes.com/gst/abstract.html?res=9F0CE0DF153FEE3 BBC4E53DFB466838D629EDE.

1. Prices ending in nines: Even if policy makers prohibit prices ending in nine, recent research has shown that the market adjusts quickly to the restriction and shifts from prices ending in ninety-nine to prices ending in ninety, with the same deceiving effect on consumers; see Avichai Snir, Daniel Levy, and Haipeng Chen, “End of 9-Endings, Price Recall, and Price Perceptions," Economics Letters, forthcoming (posted April 2, 2017), https://ssrn.com/ abstract=2944919.

1. "under \$1,000, which is code for \$999” : Matthew Amster-Burton, "Price Anchoring, or Why a \$499iPad Seems Inexpensive,”Mint- Life, April 6, 2010, https://blog.mint.com/how-to/priceanchoring.

1. sellers often use price to deliberately obscure information: Authors' conversation with Florian Bauer, December 19, 2016.

第4章 市场的复兴

1. "Nothing anyone does will seem that crazy”: Olivia Solon, "Oh the Humanity! Poker Computer Trounces Humans in Big Step for Al," Guardian, January 30, 2017, https://www.theguardian. com/technology/2017/jan/30/libratus-poker-artificial-intelligence-professional-humanplayers-competition.

1. playing poker against Libratus: Quoted in Ben Popper, “This Al Will Battle Poker Pros for \$200,000 in Prizes,” Verge, January 4, 2017, http://www.theverge.com/2017/1/4/14161080/ ai-vs-humans-poker-cmu-libratus-no-limit-texas-hold-em.

1. Libratus remained cool: Michael Laakasuo, Jussi Palomäki, and Mikko Salmela, "Experienced Poker Players Are Emotionally Stable," Cyberpsychology, Behavior, and Social Networking 17, no. 7

66.(October 2014),668-671, http://online.liebertpub.com/doi/abs/10.1089/cyber.2014.0147.

1. "plugging its own holes every night” : Authors' conversation with Jason Les, February 7, 2017.

1. "we would call him a machine”: Ibid.

1. Libratus racked up more than \$1.7 million: Solon, "Oh the Humanity!"

1. the average individual wins weren't spectacular: For a detailed description of Libratus's winning approach, see Nikolai Yakovenko, “CMU' s Libratus Bluffs Its Way to Victory in # BrainsVsAI Poker Match,"Medium, February 1, 2017, https://medium.com/@Moscow 25/ cmus-libratus-bluffs-its-way-to-victory-in-brainsvsai-poker-match-99abd31b9cd4;see

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