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第5章 公司与控制

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1. and Currency" [the Pecora Commission Report], 73rd Congress, 2nd Session, report no. 1455, June6, 1934, https:/www.senate.gov/artandhistory/history/common/investigations/ pdf/Pecora\_FinalReport.pdf; for further details, see http://www.senate.gov/artandhistory/ history/common/investigations/Pecora.htm) and drug company McKesson & Robbins (which faked purchase orders and inflated inventory, see Michael Chatfield, "McKesson & Robbins Case," in Michael Chatfield and Richard Vangermeersch, eds., History of Accounting: An International Encyclopedia [New York: Garland Puolishing, 1996], 409- 410)in the twentieth century to a string of high-profile cases at the turn of the millennium, including those of WorldCom (see Justin Kuepper, “Spotting Creative Accounting on the Balance Sheet, Forbes, March 25, 2010, http://www.forbes.com/2010/03/25/balance-sheet-tricks-personalfinance-accounting.html), Chiquita Brands, HealthSouth (see Michael J. Jones, Creative Accounting, Fraud and International Accounting Scandals (Chichester, England: John Wiley, 2011), Enron (David Teather, “Billions Still Hidden in Enron Pyramid," Guardian, January 30,

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2002, https:// www.theguardian.com/business/2002/jan/30/corporatefraud.enron2; Malcolm S. Salter, "Innovation Corrupted: The Rise and Fall of Enron (A)," Harvard Business School case study 905-048, Decerber 2004 [revised October 2005], http://www.hbs.edu/facuity/ Pages/item.aspx?num=31813), Lehman Brothers (see Rosalind Z. Wiggins and Andrew Metrick, “The Lehman Brothers Bankruptcy C: Managing the Balance Sheet Through the Use of Repo 105," Yale Program on Financial Stability case study 2014- 3C-V1, October 1, 2014, https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract\_id=2593079; Donald J. Smith, “Hidden Debt: From Enron's Commodity Prepays to Lehman's Repo 105s," Financial An- alysts Journal 67, no, 5 [September/October 2011], https://www.cfainstitute.org/ learning/products/publications/faj/Pages/faj.v67.n5.2.aspx), and electronics giant Toshiba, which in 2015 was caught posting profits early and pushing back the posting of losses in a sales- person's version of a Ponzi scheme (see Sean Farrell, “Toshiba Boss Quits over £780 Million Accounting Scandal,"Guardian, July 21, 2015, https://www.theguardian.com/ world/2015/jul/21/toshiba-boss-quits-hisao-tanaka-accounting-scandal).

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Decision Making,” Harvard Business Review (October 2016), https://hbr.org/2016/10/noise.

1. Checklists in aircraft: Brigette M. Hales and Peter J. Pronovost, “The Checklist—a Tool for Error Management and Performance," Journal of Critical Care 21 (2006), 231– 235.

“decentralization with coordinatedcontrol” : Alfred P. Sloan Jr., My Years with General Motors (New York: Doubleday, 1990), 129, quoted in Garvin and Levesque, “Executive Decision Making at General Motors."

1. confirmation bias: Yoram Bar-Tal and Maria Jarymowicz, “The Effect of Gender on Cognitive Structuring: WhoAre More Biased, Men or Women?” Psychology 1, no. 2 (January 2010) 80-87, http:// www.scirp.org/journal/Paperlnformation.aspx?paperlD=2096.

1. limits of our ability to make optimal decisions: Herbert A. Simon,Models of Bounded Rationality (Cambridge: MIT Press, 1982).

1. informational ignorance works just as well: Cultivating “a bene- ficial degree of ignorance" is one of the self-help leitmotifs woven through Gerd Gigerenzer's international best seller Gut

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Feelings. The wisdom of gut instincts and intuition was also featured in Malcolm Gladwell's Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking (New York: Little, Brown, 2005) and, more recently, in economists Donald Sull and Kathleen Eisenhardt's Simple Rules: How to Thrive in a Complex World (New York: Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2015).

1. they value their gut feelings: Economist Intelligence Unit, “Decisive Action: How Businesses Make Decisions and How They Could Do It Better” (London: Applied Predictive Technologies, n.d.), 7, http:// www.datascienceassn.org/sites/default/files/Decisive%20Action%20-%20 How%20Businesses%20Make%20Decisions%20and%20How%20They%20Could%20 do%20it%20Better.pdf.

1. every second-best solution to a problem: See generally David G. Myers, Intuition—Its Powers and Its Perils (New Haven: Yale Uni- versity Press, 2002).

第6章 公司的未来

1. company announced it would use Watson: Justin McCurry, “Japanese Company Replaces Office Workers with Artificial Intelligence,"Guardian, January 5, 2017, https://www. theguardian.com/technology/2017/jan/05/japanese-company-replaces-office-workersartificial-intelligence-ai-fukoku-mutual-life-insurance; alsosee Fukoku Mutual's pressrelease:https://translate.google.com/translate?depth=1&hl=en&prev=search&r ur|=translate.google.com&sl=ja&sp=nmt4&u=http://www.fukoku-life.co.jp/about/news/ download/20161226.pdf.

1. 20 percent of Daimler's global workforce: “Daimler baut Konzern fürdie Digitalisierung” Frankfurter AllgemeineZeitung,September 7, 2016, www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/daimlerbaut-konzern-fuer-die-digitalisierung-um-14424858.html.

1. “supplement the hierarchical-management pyramid” : “Daimler Chief Plots Cultural Revolution,"HandelsblattGlobal, July25, 2016, https://global.handelsblatt.com/companiesmarkets/daimlerchief-plots-cultural-revolution-574783.

1. required considerable institutional support: See, e.g., Douglas W. Allen, The Institutional Revolution—Measuremènt and the Economic Emergence of the Modern World (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2012).

1. bump artificial intelligence into the executive ranks: See also Vegard Kolbjernsrud, Richard Amico, and Robert J. Thomas, "How Artificial Intelligence Will Redefine Management," Harvard Busi- ness Review, November 2,2016, https://hbr.org/2016/11/how-artificialintelligence-will-redefine-management.

1. automate three-fourths of all management decisions: Olivia Solon, "World's Largest Hedge Fund toReplace Managers with Artificial Intelligence,” Guardian, December 22, 2016, htfps://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/dec/22/bridgewater-associates-ai-artificialintelligence-management.

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Christopher Stanton, “Digital Labor Markets and Global Talent Flows," National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 23398 (May 2017), http://www.nber.org/papers/w23398.

第7章 资本的衰落

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Politics, and Law (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2007); an article version is Alan Morrison and William Wilhelm, "Investment Banking: Past, Present, and Future,"Journal of Applied Corporate Finance 19 (2007), 8 - 20.

1. lacks the insight, based on information: Albert Wenger, World After Capital, https:// worldaftercapital.gitbooks.io/worldaftercapital/content/part-two/Capital.html

第8章 反馈效应

1. built-in risk of extreme failure: See the official report of the accident investigation BEA, Final Report—On the Accident on 1st June 2009 to theAirbus A330-203Registered F-GZCP Operated by Air France Flight AF447 Rio de Janeiro- Paris, July 2012, https:// www.bea. aero/docspa/2009/f-cp090601.en/pdf/f-cp090601.en.pdf; see also William Langewiesche, “The Human Factor," Van- ity Fair, September 17, 2014, http://www.vanityfair.com/news/ business/2014/10/air-france-flight-447-crash;Tim Harford, “Crash:How Computers Are Setting Us Up for Disaster," Guardian, October 11, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/ technology/2016/oct/11/crash-how-computers-are-setting-us-up-disaster.

1. the general theory of feedback: See George Dyson, Turing' s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe (New York: Pantheon Books, 2012), 109-114.

1. in choosing the term "cybernetics": On the ambivalence of Norbert Wiener' s work, see Flo Conway and Jim Siegelman, Dark Hero of the Information Age—In Search of Norbert Wiener, the Father of Cyber- netics (New York: Basic Books, 2005).

1. "their control over the rest of the human race" : Norbert Wiener, The Human Use of Human Beings (Boston: Da Capo Press, 1988), 247- 250.

1. Champagne fairs of the Middle Ages: Ray Fisman and Tim Sullivan, The Inner Lives of Markets: How People Shape Them and They Shape Us (New York: PublicAffairs, 2016).

1. search requests ... go to Google: "Marktanteile der Suchmaschinen weltweit nach mobiler und stationärer Nutzung im März 2017,"https://de.statista.com/statistik/daten/studie/222849/ umfrage/marktanteile-der-suchmaschinen-weltweit.

1. Amazon's share of. . . online retail revenues: “Amazon Accounts for 43 Percent of US Online Retail Sales," Business Insider, February 2, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.de/amazonaccounts-for-43-of-us-online-retail-sales-2017-2?r=US&IR=T.

1. Facebook's almost 2 billion users: "Leading Countries Based on Number of Facebook Users as of April 2016(in Millions)," https:// www.statista.com/statistics/268136/top-15-countriesbased-on-number-of-facebook-users.

1. GoDaddy is the largest domain-name registrar: Andrew Alle- mann, “GoDaddy Marches Toward\$1 Billion,"DomainNameWire, August 17, 2010,-http://domainnamewire. com/2010/08/17/go-daddy-marches-toward-1-billion.

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